TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Ristic (moneyline) at 1.92 in M. Barthel vs M. Ristic (Ljubljana on 2026-09-17). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Barthel | M. Ristic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
43.6% | 56.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
46.9% | 53.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
71.9% | 28.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.1% | 45.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
45.4% | 54.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barthel | clay | 1581 | 66–67 | 133 |
| M. Ristic | clay | 1647 | 114–75 | 189 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 20, 2026.
M. Barthel leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 18, 2026 | Ljubljana | clay | M. Barthel | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. J. Brockmann | 0 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Dudeney | 2 - 1 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | L. Hietaranta | 0 - 2 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Newberry | 0 - 2 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | R. Sramkova | 2 - 1 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| L | M. Kubka | 0 - 2 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | B. Andreescu | 2 - 0 | Oct. 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Pieri | 0 - 2 | Sept. 25, 2026 |
| W | N. Basiletti | 1 - 2 | Sept. 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Rus | 2 - 1 | Sept. 21, 2026 |
All Sept. 17, 2026 results & picks →