TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J. Pegula (moneyline) at 2.50 in A. Sabalenka vs J. Pegula (US Open on 2026-09-10). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Sabalenka | J. Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.5% | 44.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
45.7% | 54.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
83.9% | 16.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.7% | 38.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.1% | 36.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sabalenka | hard | 2186 | 207–62 | 269 |
| J. Pegula | hard | 2093 | 204–77 | 281 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 12, 2026.
A. Sabalenka leads 8–3 over 11 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 10, 2026 | US Open | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| June 20, 2026 | Berlin | grass | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| Nov. 4, 2025 | Finals - Riyadh | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 11, 2025 | Wuhan | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| Sept. 5, 2025 | US Open | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 1 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 1 - 2 | Sept. 12, 2026 |
| W | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | Sept. 10, 2026 |
| W | L. Noskova | 2 - 1 | Sept. 8, 2026 |
| W | T. Townsend | 2 - 0 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | K. Rakhimova | 2 - 0 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Sept. 10, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 2 - 1 | Sept. 9, 2026 |
| W | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | L. Fernandez | 2 - 1 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 2 - 0 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
All Sept. 10, 2026 results & picks →