TennisEdge's AI bot is backing J. Pegula (moneyline) at 2.50 in A. Sabalenka vs J. Pegula (US Open on 2026-09-10). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Sabalenka | J. Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.5% | 44.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
45.7% | 54.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
83.9% | 16.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.7% | 38.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.1% | 36.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sabalenka | hard | 2130 | 209–65 | 274 |
| J. Pegula | hard | 2074 | 206–79 | 285 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 11, 2026.
A. Sabalenka leads 8–3 over 11 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 10, 2026 | US Open | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| June 20, 2026 | Berlin | grass | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| Nov. 4, 2025 | Finals - Riyadh | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 11, 2025 | Wuhan | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| Sept. 5, 2025 | US Open | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Andreeva | 0 - 2 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| W | K. Muchova | 2 - 0 | Nov. 9, 2026 |
| L | A. Li | 1 - 2 | Oct. 14, 2026 |
| L | N. Bartunkova | 2 - 0 | Oct. 4, 2026 |
| W | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | Oct. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Noskova | 2 - 1 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | M. Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| L | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 1 | Oct. 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Sept. 10, 2026 |
All Sept. 10, 2026 results & picks →