TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Z. Sonmez vs L. Fernandez (Nottingham on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with L. Fernandez favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Z. Sonmez | L. Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.6% | 45.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
33.9% | 66.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
63.6% | 36.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
47.6% | 52.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
43.0% | 57.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Sonmez | hard | 1722 | 95–68 | 163 |
| L. Fernandez | hard | 1804 | 119–82 | 201 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | Nottingham | grass | Z. Sonmez | 2 - 0 |
| April 16, 2026 | Stuttgart | clay | L. Fernandez | 2 - 1 |
| W | R. Marino | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Kalieva | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | C. Brace | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | C. Liu | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Li | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Linette | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | J. Tjen | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Boulter | 1 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used