TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Bejlek vs Ka. Pliskova (Nottingham on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with Ka. Pliskova favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Bejlek | Ka. Pliskova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
11.7% | 88.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
33.7% | 66.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
21.6% | 78.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
28.1% | 71.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bejlek | clay | 1747 | 137–58 | 195 |
| Ka. Pliskova | hard | 1747 | 77–47 | 124 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 24, 2026.
Ka. Pliskova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | Nottingham | grass | Ka. Pliskova | 2 - 1 |
| W | Xiy. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | L. Tagger | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Tauson | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | O. Oliynykova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | I. Swiatek | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Valentova | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used