TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Li vs K. Birrell (Nottingham on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with K. Birrell favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Li | K. Birrell |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
34.8% | 65.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.1% | 52.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.7% | 60.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
43.0% | 57.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Li | hard | 1725 | 116–89 | 205 |
| K. Birrell | hard | 1773 | 149–98 | 247 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
A. Li leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | Nottingham | grass | A. Li | 2 - 1 |
| March 19, 2026 | Miami | hard | A. Li | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 31, 2025 | Singapore | hard | A. Li | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Frech | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | Z. Sonmez | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | V. Golubic | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | Y. Ma | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | S. Cirstea | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | A. Korneeva | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | P. Marcinko | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used