TennisEdge's AI bot is backing C. Liu (moneyline) in Z. Sonmez vs C. Liu (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Z. Sonmez | C. Liu |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
64.0% | 36.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.0% | 51.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.4% | 43.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.0% | 36.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.3% | 36.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
C. Liu leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | C. Liu | 2 - 0 |
| W | R. Marino | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Kalieva | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | C. Brace | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | C. Liu | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Li | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | Y. Putintseva | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | I. Oz | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| W | M. S. Popa | 2 - 0 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | S. Kraus | 2 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
Wimbledon (grass) 1/32-finals — Z. Sonmez (A) vs C. Liu (B) MODELS ELO P(A)=0.640 | ML P(A)=0.490 | Ensemble=0.640 (low conf 0.13) Market: A 1.48 / B 2.55 -> implied A 0.633, B 0.367 (value_edge +0.007) Rec method: ensemble_mutual_agreement -> models DISAGREE (ELO vs ML) -> bot passes. => ML meaningfully splits from ELO/market, favouring Liu. Qualitative read must adjudicate. FORM — SONMEZ (last, most-recent first) 06-29 Wim R64 LOST vs A. Li (1507 Weak) 5-7 6-1 4-6 <- lost to a WEAK opponent 06-25 Eastb QF LOST vs Ostapenko (1748 Strong) 3-6 0-6 <- bagelled, blown out 06-24 Eastb WIN (walkover) 06-23 Eastb WIN vs Dart (1582 Avg) GRIND 4-6 6-2 7-5 06-21 Eastb FN WIN vs Jacquemot (1604) — TITLE Eastbourne (grass) Peak grass run (Nottingham title 06-14, Eastbourne title 06-21) now FADING: last 3 = L/L with a bagel and a loss to a 1507. FORM — LIU 06-29 Wim R64 WIN vs Vandewinkel (1514) GRIND 4-6 6-3 6-4 06-23/25 Wim Q WINs vs Papamichail (DOM 6-2 6-1), Quevedo, Pridankina Tier note: Liu's body of work is ITF W75/W35 level (Trnava title 05-16); wins mostly vs Avg/Weak fields. Genuine class gap below Sonmez on ELO. FATIGUE (from prediction fatigue block) Sonmez: 8 matches/14d, 23 sets, 3 back-to-back, 616 min court time, last 06-29. Liu: 4 matches/14d, 12 sets, 2 back-to-back, 285 min court time, last 06-29. Court-time diff 331 min (>60) -> Sonmez heavily disadvantaged. Double the matches, double the court time. Decisive fatigue edge to LIU. NARRATIVE Let-down: Sonmez Eastbourne title 06-21 (~10d) — stale as a standalone, but the deeper read is an EXHAUSTED post-peak body: two losses since, incl. to a 1507. Title recency: Eastbourne 10d (grass), Nottingham 16d (grass) — historically strong on grass, but live form says the tank is empty. Venue: neutral (qualifying-stage Wim labels are data artifacts). VERDICT Market prices Sonmez at 1.48 (63%) on reputation/ELO from her title run. ML (0.49) flags the other side and the qualitative read validates it: a gassed favourite (616 min / 8 matches / just lost to a 1507) vs a fresher opponent. The class gap keeps Sonmez the likelier winner, but at 2.55 Liu is materially underpriced. Backing the value underdog. BET B (C. Liu) @ 2.55 — 1.5u.