TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Kwon vs T. Paul (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01) — the market is efficient, with T. Paul favoured at 1.12.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Kwon | T. Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
21.9% | 78.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
22.4% | 77.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
33.5% | 66.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
22.0% | 78.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
12.2% | 87.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
T. Paul leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | T. Paul | 3 - 0 |
| July 27, 2022 | Atlanta | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 14, 2021 | Cincinnati | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| W | A. Kim | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | G. Young | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Gea | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | E. Winter | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | A. F. Rubio Fierros | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
S. Kwon (A) vs T. Paul (B) — Wimbledon 1/32, grass MODELS: ELO 21.9% A | ML 22.4% A | model 22.0% A | market implied 12.2% A (Paul 1.12 / Kwon 8.05). Bot flags +9.7% edge on Kwon, 0.25-Kelly 2.5u. FORM — KWON: heavy WIN COUNT (won Wuxi, Gwangju, Wimbledon-named event) but soft fields. 06-29 DOM 6-4 6-3 6-3 vs Landaluce (1711, Strong) — real signal. 06-25 won Final vs Moro Canas (1625) 6-4 7-6 6-3. BUT lost to Virtanen (1760) 2-6 5-7 and lost Nottingham Final to Matusevich (1501) on grass. Opposition mostly 1450-1711. FORM — PAUL: 06-29 DOM 6-1 6-2 6-1 vs Muller — razor sharp. Reached London grass Final beating Humbert (1721), ADF (1701), Svajda (1784), VdZ; lost Final to Cerundolo (1692) in 3. Demolished De Minaur-level fields on clay too. Genuine top-tier, far stronger competition than Kwon. FATIGUE: Kwon 5 matches/14d, 537min, slightly fresher. Paul 7 matches/14d, 635min, back-to-back 3 — heavier, but the 6-1 6-2 6-1 demolition shows zero fatigue. Slight edge Kwon on rest, not decisive. NARRATIVE: Kwon TITLE Wimbledon-event 6d ago (grass) = WEAK let-down only. Paul last Final (London, lost) 10d ago = None. Venue: neutral. VERDICT: Both ELO+ML disagree with market (22% vs 12%) but the disagreement is a win-count artifact — Kwon's ELO inflated by volume of wins over 1450-1711 fields (opponent quality > win count). Paul's DOM wins over 1700-1800 grass opponents validate the short 1.12 price. Model and market agree Paul wins; the 'value' on Kwon is a mirage. No validated edge -> PASS.