TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Tjen vs D. Kasatkina (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01) — the market is efficient, with D. Kasatkina favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Tjen | D. Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
34.0% | 66.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
62.0% | 38.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
41.1% | 58.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
34.0% | 66.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.1% | 52.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Tjen | hard | 1759 | 106–31 | 137 |
| D. Kasatkina | hard | 1759 | 111–80 | 191 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
D. Kasatkina leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | R. Sramkova | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Kasatkina | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | L. Fernandez | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Smith | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
J. Tjen vs D. Kasatkina — Wimbledon, grass, 1/32-finals (2026-07-01) MODELS: ELO A 0.34 | ML A 0.62 | serve/return A 0.41 | ensemble winner Kasatkina 0.54 (low conf 0.09). Models do NOT mutually agree — ELO loves Kasatkina (pedigree), ML flips to Tjen. Market: Tjen 2.02 / Kasatkina 1.80 (implied B 52.9%). Value pick B edge +0.13, but that edge is pure ELO that live grass form does not validate. FORM — TJEN (grass): W vs Fernandez 6-1 7-6 (R64, GRIND, opp 1645/Avg) — only quality grass win. Prior grass: L Eastbourne (McNally 1732, 3s), L Nottingham (Maria, DOM), L Hertogenbosch (Minnen), L Birmingham (Krueger, DOM), W Hibino. Net: poor grass season, one good Wimbledon win. FORM — KASATKINA (grass): W vs Xu 6-2 3-6 6-2 (R64, struggled past Weak 1500 in 3). Prior grass: L Eastbourne (Kessler 1619, straights), L Nottingham SF (Blinkova 1635, 6-3 6-2 DOM), L Hertogenbosch (Montgomery, 3s). Last title Strasbourg Final 2026-05-17 (clay, 44d) — irrelevant to grass. FATIGUE: both played 2026-06-29. Tjen 173min, Kasatkina 151min; matches_14d 2 each. Diff 22min <30 → Roughly equal. NARRATIVE: Let-down None (last final 44d, clay). Venue: neither has Wimbledon history beyond yesterday's R64 win (1-0 each). Title recency clay-only, no grass carry. VERDICT: Classic no-edge spot. ELO's value on Kasatkina rests on historical rating; her live grass form (lost to Kessler/Blinkova cleanly, scraped past Weak Xu) does NOT back it. ML disagrees outright. No model consensus + qualitative read that kills the ELO edge = PASS. Coin-flip between two out-of-form players; market price offers no exploitable edge.