TENNISEDGE.GG

R. Safiullin vs B. Van De Zandschulp — Prediction & Analysis

Wimbledon · ATP Wimbledon - 1/32-finals · July 1, 2026 · 12:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing R. Safiullin (moneyline) in R. Safiullin vs B. Van De Zandschulp (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01).

Surface grass Odds R. Safiullin 1.71 · B. Van De Zandschulp 2.06

Bot bet

R. Safiullin (moneyline) · 1.5u
Pending — published before the match, graded in public.
Profiles: R. Safiullin · B. Van De Zandschulp · head-to-head record · Wimbledon

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method R. Safiullin B. Van De Zandschulp
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
68.4% 31.6%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
70.5% 29.5%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
60.2% 39.8%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
62.8% 37.2%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
54.6% 45.4%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
R. Safiullin hard1715 107–81188
B. Van De Zandschulp hard1749 108–84192

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 4, 2026.

Head to head

R. Safiullin leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
July 1, 2026WimbledongrassR. Safiullin3 - 2

Recent form

R. Safiullin

L N. Djokovic 1 - 3 July 5, 2026
W J. Fonseca 3 - 0 July 3, 2026
W B. Van De Zandschulp 3 - 2 July 1, 2026
W A. Rublev 2 - 3 June 29, 2026
W J. Kym 3 - 2 June 25, 2026

B. Van De Zandschulp

L J. Faria 0 - 2 July 21, 2026
L D. Vallejo 1 - 2 July 15, 2026
W T. Daniel 2 - 0 July 14, 2026
L R. Safiullin 3 - 2 July 1, 2026
W A. Kovacevic 1 - 3 June 29, 2026

All July 1, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

MATCH: R. Safiullin (A) vs B. Van De Zandschulp (B) — Wimbledon, grass, 1/32-finals (2026-07-01)

MODELS: ELO 0.684 | ML 0.705 | model 0.628 | market implied A 0.546 (A 1.71 / B 2.06). Value pick A, edge +8.1%. All three models favor A and all sit above the market price — genuine model disagreement with the book (ML +15pts).

FORM (grass, live):
- Safiullin: HOT. W vs Rublev (1744, Strong) 5-set GRIND 2d ago; W 'Final' vs Kym (1651) 5 sets; W vs Coppejans (1666) 7-6 7-5; W vs McCabe (1634) 6-3 7-6; W vs Holmgren (1640) 6-3 6-2 DOM. Beating Rublev on grass is a marquee result. Many GRINDs vs Avg/Strong.
- BVDZ: MEDIOCRE. W vs Kovacevic (1401, Weak) only; L to Paul (1810), L to Griekspoor (1689). Beats weak, loses to anyone decent. Live form clearly favors A.

FATIGUE: LOPSIDED toward B's favor. Safiullin 816min court / 18 sets / 6 matches in 14d / back-to-back / 5-set war vs Rublev just 2d ago. BVDZ 239min / 6 sets / 2 matches. Court-time diff 577min (>60) — Safiullin heavily disadvantaged on rest. Acute concern: a flat body against a fresh opponent.

NARRATIVE: WEAK let-down — won a 'Final' 6d ago. Strong Wimbledon venue record (all W). Live form outweighs the fatigue enough to keep A the rightful favorite, but fatigue caps conviction.

VERDICT: BET A — model edge (+8.1%) is validated by dominant live grass form (beat Rublev 1744). But Safiullin's enormous 14-day workload and a 5-set marathon 2d ago is a real flat-performance risk, so size down from the bot's 2.5u to 1.5u. Win prob shaded to 0.60 (below model 0.628) for fatigue.