TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Z. Bergs vs T. Fritz (Halle on 2026-06-17) — the market is efficient, with T. Fritz favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Z. Bergs | T. Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
13.7% | 86.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
41.5% | 58.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
10.0% | 90.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
19.0% | 81.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
25.4% | 74.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
T. Fritz leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 27, 2026 | Washington | hard | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
| June 17, 2026 | Halle | grass | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | A. Fery | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | U. Humbert | 2 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | U. Humbert | 2 - 1 | June 28, 2026 |
| W | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
All June 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used