TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in B. Shelton vs L. Sonego (Halle on 2026-06-17) — the market is efficient, with B. Shelton favoured at 1.25.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | B. Shelton | L. Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
78.6% | 21.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.8% | 34.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
59.4% | 40.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
76.2% | 23.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
73.3% | 26.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Shelton | hard | 1936 | 144–68 | 212 |
| L. Sonego | hard | 1746 | 80–88 | 168 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
B. Shelton leads 5–1 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 17, 2026 | Halle | grass | B. Shelton | 2 - 0 |
| July 7, 2025 | Wimbledon | grass | B. Shelton | 3 - 1 |
| May 25, 2025 | French Open | clay | B. Shelton | 3 - 2 |
| Jan. 22, 2025 | Australian Open | hard | B. Shelton | 3 - 1 |
| May 28, 2023 | ATP French Open | clay | L. Sonego | 3 - 1 |
| L | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | U. Humbert | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Damm | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | O. Virtanen | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | J. J. Schwaerzler | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | G. Diallo | 2 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
All June 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used