TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Collignon vs M. Bellucci (Halle on 2026-06-17) — the market is efficient, with R. Collignon favoured at 1.70.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Collignon | M. Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.5% | 60.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.1% | 46.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
47.0% | 53.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
56.1% | 43.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Collignon | clay | 1830 | 136–49 | 185 |
| M. Bellucci | hard | 1722 | 152–98 | 250 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
M. Bellucci leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 18, 2026 | Halle | grass | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 |
| March 13, 2026 | Cap Cana | hard | M. Bellucci | 2 - 0 |
| June 28, 2023 | ATP Wimbledon | grass | M. Bellucci | 2 - 0 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | V. Vacherot | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | L. Sonego | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Bolt | 2 - 1 | June 14, 2026 |
All June 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used