TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Tiafoe vs S. Shimabukuro (Halle on 2026-06-17) — the market is efficient, with F. Tiafoe favoured at 1.38.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Tiafoe | S. Shimabukuro |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.2% | 59.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.8% | 34.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
28.3% | 71.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
53.2% | 46.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
69.2% | 30.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Tiafoe | hard | 1866 | 126–85 | 211 |
| S. Shimabukuro | hard | 1657 | 165–116 | 281 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
F. Tiafoe leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 17, 2026 | Halle | grass | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Atmane | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Bublik | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Choinski | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Fritz | 0 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | M. Cilic | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | N. Budkov Kjaer | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Pacheco Mendez | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Faria | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 0 | June 17, 2026 |
All June 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used