TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Y. Yuan vs M. Sherif (Parma on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with M. Sherif favoured at 1.61.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Y. Yuan | M. Sherif |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
32.4% | 67.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
16.4% | 83.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.8% | 45.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
34.5% | 65.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
42.3% | 57.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
M. Sherif leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Parma | clay | M. Sherif | 2 - 1 |
| March 31, 2026 | Charleston | clay | Y. Yuan | 2 - 1 |
| May 28, 2024 | WTA French Open | clay | M. Sherif | 2 - 0 |
| April 16, 2024 | WTA Rouen | clay | Y. Yuan | 2 - 0 |
| June 9, 2023 | Makarska Challenger Women | clay | M. Sherif | 2 - 0 |
| W | A. Smith | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | N. Bartunkova | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Falei | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | J. Vandromme | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | K. Siniakova | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | T. Korpatsch | 0 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | P. Badosa | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | E. Jacquemot | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | S. Waltert | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | P. Badosa | 1 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used