TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Sierra vs C. Monnet (Parma on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with S. Sierra favoured at 1.14.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Sierra | C. Monnet |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
77.0% | 23.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
81.2% | 18.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.4% | 46.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
70.5% | 29.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
81.4% | 18.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 29, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Parma | clay | S. Sierra | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 22, 2025 | Florianopolis | clay | C. Monnet | 2 - 0 |
| L | S. Stephens | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Prozorova | 1 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Bondar | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | K. Quevedo | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | E. R. Bertea | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Bulgaru | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | J. Pieri | 0 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| L | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used