TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in N. Basiletti vs L. Tagger (Parma on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with L. Tagger favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | N. Basiletti | L. Tagger |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
28.9% | 71.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
15.7% | 84.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
28.8% | 71.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
24.5% | 75.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
21.7% | 78.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Basiletti | clay | 1490 | 32–35 | 67 |
| L. Tagger | clay | 1775 | 51–20 | 71 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
L. Tagger leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Parma | clay | L. Tagger | 2 - 0 |
| W | M. Weckerle | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | F. Ferro | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | E. V. Eigelsbach | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Hodzic | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | R. Serban | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | S. Bejlek | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Hontama | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | X. Gao | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used