TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Chiesa vs C. Osorio (Parma on 2026-05-12) — the market is efficient, with C. Osorio favoured at 1.08.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Chiesa | C. Osorio |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.9% | 57.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
27.5% | 72.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.0% | 47.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
41.1% | 58.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
13.4% | 86.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 26, 2026.
C. Osorio leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Parma | clay | C. Osorio | 2 - 0 |
| May 8, 2023 | WTA Rome | clay | C. Osorio | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Prisacariu | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | Y. Kabbaj | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | L. Bronzetti | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | L. Radivojevic | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | L. Gjorcheska | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| W | L. Stefanini | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Zakharova | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | S. Hunter | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Waltert | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used