TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Y. Hanfmann vs L. Darderi (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with L. Darderi favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Y. Hanfmann | L. Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
34.9% | 65.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
24.4% | 75.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.7% | 43.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
38.7% | 61.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
37.5% | 62.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Hanfmann | clay | 1810 | 123–82 | 205 |
| L. Darderi | clay | 1922 | 193–101 | 294 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 24, 2026.
L. Darderi leads 6–0 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | Mallorca | grass | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 |
| May 20, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 |
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 |
| March 1, 2026 | Santiago | clay | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 9, 2024 | Cordoba | clay | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 |
| W | B. Bonzi | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | L. Neumayer | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | D. Svrcina | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Martinez | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used