TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Baez vs A. Bublik (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with A. Bublik favoured at 1.83.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Baez | A. Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
60.1% | 39.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
60.4% | 39.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
22.3% | 77.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
47.6% | 52.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
48.2% | 51.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.
A. Bublik leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 |
| March 19, 2025 | Miami | hard | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 |
| L | Y. Hanfmann | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | M. Kecmanovic | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | J. De Jong | 0 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | F. Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used