TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in F. Tiafoe vs I. Buse (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with I. Buse favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | F. Tiafoe | I. Buse |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.6% | 66.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
41.5% | 58.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
37.6% | 62.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
38.0% | 62.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
F. Tiafoe leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 |
| L | T. Atmane | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Bublik | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Choinski | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Fritz | 0 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Feldbausch | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | V. Kopriva | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used