TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Keys vs P. Stearns (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with M. Keys favoured at 1.49.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Keys | P. Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
51.1% | 48.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
51.1% | 48.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
48.7% | 51.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
50.3% | 49.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.8% | 36.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Keys | hard | 1898 | 91–56 | 147 |
| P. Stearns | hard | 1745 | 97–74 | 171 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
P. Stearns leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | M. Keys | 2 - 1 |
| May 10, 2025 | Rome | clay | P. Stearns | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 8, 2024 | Toronto | hard | P. Stearns | 1 - 1 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Anisimova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | G. Ruse | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Kalieva | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Prozorova | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Stoiana | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | N. Bartunkova | 1 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used