TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Paul vs A. Vukic (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with T. Paul favoured at 1.11.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Paul | A. Vukic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
75.4% | 24.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
73.5% | 26.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
75.3% | 24.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
74.7% | 25.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
85.5% | 14.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
T. Paul leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 15, 2026 | Adelaide | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 24, 2021 | World TeamTennis | hard | A. Vukic | 1 - 0 |
| L | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | T. Barrios Vera | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | L. Musetti | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | A. Bolt | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used