TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Machac vs D. Medvedev (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with D. Medvedev favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Machac | D. Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.4% | 57.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
34.6% | 65.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.9% | 45.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.0% | 56.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
38.0% | 62.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Machac | hard | 1857 | 143–75 | 218 |
| D. Medvedev | hard | 1994 | 207–77 | 284 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 21, 2026.
D. Medvedev leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 1, 2024 | ATP French Open | clay | D. Medvedev | 3 - 1 |
| March 12, 2022 | Indian Wells | hard | D. Medvedev | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Zverev | 0 - 3 | May 27, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 3 - 0 | May 24, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 0 - 2 | May 7, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 1 | April 24, 2026 |
| W | F. Comesana | 2 - 1 | April 22, 2026 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 1 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Cilic | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 1 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used