TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Gibson vs A. Sasnovich (Paris on 2026-05-11) — the market is efficient, with A. Sasnovich favoured at 1.67.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Gibson | A. Sasnovich |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
30.0% | 70.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
20.5% | 79.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
25.3% | 74.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
43.7% | 56.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Gibson | hard | 1825 | 179–94 | 273 |
| A. Sasnovich | hard | 1737 | 89–80 | 169 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
A. Sasnovich leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Paris | clay | A. Sasnovich | 2 - 0 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | Ka. Pliskova | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
| L | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | T. Valentova | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | B. Andreescu | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | S. Hunter | 2 - 1 | June 24, 2026 |
All May 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used