TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Fritz vs A. Popyrin (Geneva on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with T. Fritz favoured at 1.73.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Fritz | A. Popyrin |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
57.0% | 43.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.8% | 44.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
56.4% | 43.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
54.8% | 45.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Fritz | hard | 1972 | 179–93 | 272 |
| A. Popyrin | hard | 1665 | 84–96 | 180 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
A. Popyrin leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Geneva | clay | A. Popyrin | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 19, 2023 | Australian Open | hard | A. Popyrin | 3 - 2 |
| Aug. 3, 2022 | Washington | hard | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
| W | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | T. Kokkinakis | 1 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Andrade | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Lehecka | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. Choinski | 2 - 1 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used