TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Wawrinka vs A. Michelsen (Geneva on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with A. Michelsen favoured at 1.61.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Wawrinka | A. Michelsen |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.5% | 44.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
59.7% | 40.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.0% | 49.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
55.4% | 44.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.2% | 58.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wawrinka | hard | 1720 | 58–54 | 112 |
| A. Michelsen | hard | 1895 | 148–85 | 233 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Feb. 25, 2026.
A. Michelsen leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Geneva | clay | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Faria | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | M. Berrettini | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. De Jong | 1 - 3 | May 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 0 - 2 | May 20, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 2 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. McDonald | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used