TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Tsitsipas vs L. Tien (Geneva on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with S. Tsitsipas favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Tsitsipas | L. Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
78.8% | 21.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
80.1% | 19.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
36.7% | 63.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.2% | 34.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
62.0% | 38.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Tsitsipas | hard | 1815 | 133–83 | 216 |
| L. Tien | hard | 1905 | 155–56 | 211 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
L. Tien leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Geneva | clay | L. Tien | 2 - 0 |
| W | K. Rice | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used