TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Collignon vs C. Ruud (Geneva on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with C. Ruud favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Collignon | C. Ruud |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
41.6% | 58.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
38.7% | 61.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
55.9% | 44.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.4% | 54.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
26.0% | 74.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Collignon | clay | 1830 | 136–49 | 185 |
| C. Ruud | hard | 1866 | 119–78 | 197 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Geneva | clay | C. Ruud | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 27, 2025 | US Open | hard | R. Collignon | 3 - 2 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | V. Vacherot | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | L. Sonego | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 1 - 3 | May 31, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used