TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Norrie vs M. Navone (Geneva on 2026-05-20) — the market is efficient, with M. Navone favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Norrie | M. Navone |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.5% | 66.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
33.1% | 66.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
52.4% | 47.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.7% | 60.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
45.0% | 55.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
M. Navone leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Geneva | clay | M. Navone | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 24, 2024 | ATP Rio de Janeiro | clay | M. Navone | 2 - 0 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | D. Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | B. Tomic | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Duckworth | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Kovacevic | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | M. Berrettini | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Travaglia | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
All May 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used