TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Atmane vs D. Medvedev (Halle on 2026-06-17) — the market is efficient, with D. Medvedev favoured at 1.17.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Atmane | D. Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
13.3% | 86.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
20.6% | 79.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
29.5% | 70.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
17.5% | 82.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
22.5% | 77.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Atmane | hard | 1744 | 187–113 | 300 |
| D. Medvedev | hard | 1994 | 207–77 | 284 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
D. Medvedev leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 17, 2026 | Halle | grass | D. Medvedev | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 15, 2024 | ATP Australian Open | hard | D. Medvedev | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Tabilo | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | F. Tiafoe | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | F. Tiafoe | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | G. Diallo | 2 - 1 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | D. Medvedev | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 1 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Cilic | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 1 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
All June 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used