TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Waltert vs H. Baptiste (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with H. Baptiste favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Waltert | H. Baptiste |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
65.8% | 34.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
69.0% | 31.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
58.9% | 41.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.6% | 35.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
34.4% | 65.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Waltert | clay | 1732 | 123–80 | 203 |
| H. Baptiste | hard | 1779 | 96–83 | 179 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
H. Baptiste leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | H. Baptiste | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | K. Kawa | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | L. Romero Gormaz | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
| L | Xiy. Wang | 0 - 0 | May 27, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 1 | May 24, 2026 |
| L | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 | May 10, 2026 |
| W | S. Waltert | 1 - 2 | May 8, 2026 |
| L | M. Andreeva | 0 - 2 | April 30, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used