TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Lamens vs P. Badosa (Berlin on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with S. Lamens favoured at 1.90.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Lamens | P. Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
29.9% | 70.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
39.5% | 60.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
50.2% | 49.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.0% | 58.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 13, 2026.
P. Badosa leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | Berlin | grass | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 |
| L | E. Pridankina | 2 - 1 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Rajecki | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| W | D. Galfi | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| W | T. J. Brockmann | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Udvardy | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Kawa | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Zidansek | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used