TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Keys vs Xin. Wang (Berlin on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with M. Keys favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Keys | Xin. Wang |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.5% | 25.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
58.7% | 41.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
73.5% | 26.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
72.9% | 27.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
M. Keys leads 4–0 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | Berlin | grass | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| May 22, 2024 | WTA Strasbourg | clay | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| March 24, 2024 | WTA Miami | hard | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 18, 2023 | Australian Open | hard | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Anisimova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | D. Kasatkina | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | J. Pareja | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Bencic | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used