TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Frech vs E. Lys (Berlin on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with M. Frech favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Frech | E. Lys |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.3% | 57.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
40.8% | 59.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
39.9% | 60.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.9% | 50.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
E. Lys leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | Berlin | grass | E. Lys | 2 - 0 |
| W | L. Jeanjean | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Li | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | P. Udvardy | 1 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used