TennisEdge's AI bot is backing N. Mejia (moneyline) in N. Mejia vs M. Zheng (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | N. Mejia | M. Zheng |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.7% | 57.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
40.6% | 59.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
71.7% | 28.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.9% | 55.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
28.1% | 71.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
M. Zheng leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Zheng | 3 - 1 |
| W | M. Landaluce | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Hernandez | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Soto | 2 - 0 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | J. P. Varillas | 2 - 1 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | M. Kecmanovic | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Nishikori | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Gea | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Landaluce | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
MEJIA vs ZHENG — Wimbledon 1/32 (grass) MODELS: ELO 0.427 | ML 0.406 | model 0.449 | serve/return 0.717 (all Mejia). Market: Zheng 1.35 (devig 71.9%) / Mejia 3.45 (28.1%). Value A, edge +16.8%. Both models price Mejia near a coinflip — 13-18pt disagreement vs a heavy 1.35 favorite. FORM — Mejia (A): HOT on grass. Won Wimbledon Final 6-4 6-4 6-4 over Schoolkate (1691 Strong) 06-25 = DOM vs Strong, TITLE 6d ago. SF DOM over Heide (1477). GRIND wins vs Rocha/Vallejo (Weak/Avg). 4-set R1 win 06-29. BUT lost Dublin qualifying 06-17 to Zhou (1632); weak clay/hard season prior. FORM — Zheng (B): Higher class. Beat Norrie (1674 Strong) in a 5-set marathon 06-29, Smith (1649) in Final 06-25 (TITLE 6d), Djere (1570), Squire (1379). Deep FO + Wimbledon runs. Tougher slate overall. FATIGUE: court time 590 (A) vs 535 (B), diff 55min; 5 vs 4 matches/14d — roughly equal, but Zheng's acute load (5 sets, 2d ago) is the heavier recent toll. Both back-to-back, both 2d rest. NARRATIVE: Both won a Final 06-25 -> WEAK let-down, cancels. Title recency equal. Venue: both hot at Wimbledon. VERDICT: BET A (Mejia) 1.5u @3.45. Two models agree with a real edge, validated qualitatively — Mejia's live grass form (DOM over Strong in a final) + Zheng off a draining 5-setter make 3.45 a value underdog. Class gap and low model confidence (0.03) keep size modest. Predicted match winner: Zheng (favorite).