TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Masarova vs L. Fernandez (Rome on 2026-05-08) — the market is efficient, with L. Fernandez favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Masarova | L. Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.7% | 33.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
81.8% | 18.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
61.5% | 38.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
70.0% | 30.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.8% | 68.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Masarova | hard | 1641 | 85–62 | 147 |
| L. Fernandez | hard | 1804 | 119–82 | 201 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
R. Masarova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | R. Masarova | 2 - 1 |
| L | V. Ryser | 1 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | C. Monnet | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | F. Curmi | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | J. Grabher | 1 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | J. Teichmann | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Linette | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | J. Tjen | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Boulter | 1 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
All May 8, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used