TennisEdge's AI bot is backing P. Carreno-Busta (moneyline) in R. Jodar vs P. Carreno-Busta (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Jodar | P. Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.3% | 59.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.4% | 42.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
56.4% | 43.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
72.4% | 27.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Jodar | hard | 1905 | 67–22 | 89 |
| P. Carreno-Busta | hard | 1742 | 81–51 | 132 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
R. Jodar leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | R. Jodar | 3 - 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | French Open | clay | R. Jodar | 3 - 2 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Musetti | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Nishikori | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Fils | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | L. van Assche | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | V. Gaubas | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | M. Dodig | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | R. Jodar | 3 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: R. Jodar (A) vs P. Carreno-Busta (B) — Wimbledon 1/32-finals, GRASS MODELS: - Market: A 1.31 (impl 72.4%) | B 3.44 (impl 27.6%) → value pick B, edge +16.0% (devig) - ELO: A 40.3% (ELO favors PCB ~60/40) - ML: A 57.4% (favors Jodar) - Blended model: A 56.4% / B 43.6% - Disagreement: ELO meaningfully fades the market; ML sides with market. Low model confidence (0.02). FORM: - Jodar: red-hot but ENTIRELY on clay. Marrakech title (Apr), QFs Madrid/Rome, FO QF (lost Zverev). Beat De Minaur 6-3 6-1, took sets off Sinner. Wimbledon 1/64: DOM 6-3 6-3 7-5 vs Gill (Weak, 1381). Grass is essentially untested territory. - PCB: veteran, FO 1/8 (lost to Jodar). Wimbledon 1/64: up 2-0 sets vs Shapovalov (3-6,6-7) before retirement — easy passage, low court time. Real grass pedigree historically. H2H: Jodar d. PCB at French Open 1/8 (4-6 4-6 6-1 6-2 6-2) — but on CLAY and from two sets down; it was close. FATIGUE: Both 1 match/14d, both played 06-29, 2 days rest. Jodar 124min vs PCB 84min (opp retired). |court diff| 40min → slight freshness edge PCB. NARRATIVE: - Let-down: none recent (Jodar's last Final = Marrakech ~86d ago, clay). - Venue: both 1-0 at Wimbledon this week. - Title recency: Jodar Marrakech 86d (clay) — irrelevant on grass. VERDICT: Genuine value spot. Market prices Jodar at 72% off dominant CLAY form, but grass neutralizes the clay specialist and the recent H2H win was on his best surface from two sets down. Veteran PCB has grass craft and arrives fresher after a walkover. ELO (60% PCB) validates the read. Underdog price (3.44) and low model confidence cap the size. BET B (Carreno-Busta) 1.5u. Match-winner forecast remains Jodar (market/ML favorite).