TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Hijikata vs T. Daniel (Hamburg on 2026-05-16) — the market is efficient, with R. Hijikata favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Hijikata | T. Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.9% | 59.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
27.1% | 72.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
34.0% | 66.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.5% | 39.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hijikata | hard | 1725 | 183–115 | 298 |
| T. Daniel | hard | 1551 | 132–99 | 231 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
R. Hijikata leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | R. Hijikata | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 7, 2024 | Montreal | hard | R. Hijikata | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 4, 2023 | Sydney Challenger Men | hard | T. Daniel | 2 - 1 |
| L | J. Munar | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. De Jong | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | J. Lehecka | 2 - 1 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | K. Jacquet | 1 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. C. Prado Angelo | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | B. Van De Zandschulp | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | C. Sanchez Jover | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| W | F. Coria | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
All May 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used