TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Petkovic vs A. Gea (Hamburg on 2026-05-16) — the market is efficient, with A. Gea favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Petkovic | A. Gea |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
46.3% | 53.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
50.7% | 49.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.5% | 43.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
51.1% | 48.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.5% | 68.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Petkovic | clay | 1523 | 41–29 | 70 |
| A. Gea | clay | 1586 | 72–67 | 139 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
A. Gea leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | A. Gea | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Barsukov | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. E. Galan | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | A. Oetzbach | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | H. Squire | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | G. Tabacco | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | C. Wong | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | F. Cerundolo | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
All May 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used