TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Giron vs S. Nagal (Hamburg on 2026-05-16) — the market is efficient, with M. Giron favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Giron | S. Nagal |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
29.7% | 70.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
29.7% | 70.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
29.9% | 70.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
29.7% | 70.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
66.7% | 33.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
M. Giron leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | M. Giron | 2 - 0 |
| W | P. Llamas Ruiz | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | C. Hewitt | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Ilagan | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | A. Shah | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Zverev | 0 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| L | J. Kumstat | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Krumich | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | P. Brunclik | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | I. Montes-De La Torre | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | A. Nedic | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
All May 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used