TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Squire vs C. Garin (Hamburg on 2026-05-16) — the market is efficient, with C. Garin favoured at 1.26.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Squire | C. Garin |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
35.2% | 64.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
27.1% | 72.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
58.4% | 41.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.2% | 59.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
26.6% | 73.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
H. Squire leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | H. Squire | 2 - 1 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | M. Pucinelli de Almeida | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Tabur | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | O. Virtanen | 0 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | F. Roncadelli | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | L. Tien | 1 - 3 | May 26, 2026 |
| L | H. Squire | 2 - 1 | May 16, 2026 |
| L | L. Midon | 1 - 2 | May 12, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | May 9, 2026 |
| W | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | May 7, 2026 |
All May 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used