TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Schoenhaus vs L. van Assche (Hamburg on 2026-05-16) — the market is efficient, with L. van Assche favoured at 1.34.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Schoenhaus | L. van Assche |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
35.1% | 64.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
25.5% | 74.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.7% | 39.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.4% | 59.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
28.3% | 71.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Schoenhaus | clay | 1615 | 29–25 | 54 |
| L. van Assche | hard | 1762 | 101–85 | 186 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
M. Schoenhaus leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | M. Schoenhaus | 2 - 0 |
| L | F. A. Gomez | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Houkes | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | A. Santamarta Roig | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | L. Djere | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | R. A. Burruchaga | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | T. Droguet | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Blockx | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | H. Gaston | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | A. Rublev | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Carreno-Busta | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
All May 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used