TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in I. Buse vs N. McDonald (Hamburg on 2026-05-16) — the market is efficient, with I. Buse favoured at 1.07.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | I. Buse | N. McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
84.8% | 15.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
77.5% | 22.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.3% | 31.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
76.9% | 23.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
86.0% | 14.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Buse | clay | 1814 | 133–81 | 214 |
| N. McDonald | clay | 1587 | 26–17 | 43 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.
I. Buse leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | I. Buse | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Feldbausch | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | V. Kopriva | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | J. Rodionov | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | D. Sakellaridis | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | F. A. Gomez | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | F. Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | M. Krumich | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
All May 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used