TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Badosa vs C. Gauff (Berlin on 2026-06-17) — the market is efficient, with C. Gauff favoured at 1.29.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Badosa | C. Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.1% | 50.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
29.2% | 70.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
37.2% | 62.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.3% | 70.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 21, 2026.
P. Badosa leads 4–3 over 7 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 17, 2026 | Berlin | grass | P. Badosa | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 21, 2025 | Australian Open | hard | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 5, 2024 | WTA Beijing | hard | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 |
| May 13, 2024 | WTA Rome | clay | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 |
| April 29, 2023 | WTA Madrid | clay | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Sherif | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Udvardy | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Kawa | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Zidansek | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
All June 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used