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P. Badosa vs C. Gauff — Prediction & Analysis

Berlin · WTA Berlin - 1/8-finals · June 17, 2026 · 15:30 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Badosa vs C. Gauff (Berlin on 2026-06-17) — the market is efficient, with C. Gauff favoured at 1.29.

Surface grass Odds P. Badosa 3.12 · C. Gauff 1.29

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: P. Badosa · C. Gauff · head-to-head record · Berlin

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method P. Badosa C. Gauff
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
49.1% 50.9%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
29.2% 70.8%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
37.2% 62.8%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
29.3% 70.7%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
P. Badosa hard1824 78–54132
C. Gauff hard2045 155–60215

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 21, 2026.

Head to head

P. Badosa leads 4–3 over 7 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
June 17, 2026BerlingrassP. Badosa2 - 1
Jan. 21, 2025Australian OpenhardP. Badosa2 - 0
Oct. 5, 2024WTA BeijinghardC. Gauff2 - 1
May 13, 2024WTA RomeclayC. Gauff2 - 1
April 29, 2023WTA MadridclayP. Badosa2 - 0

Recent form

P. Badosa

L M. Sherif 2 - 1 July 24, 2026
W P. Udvardy 2 - 0 July 23, 2026
W K. Kawa 0 - 2 July 22, 2026
L M. Sherif 1 - 0 July 20, 2026
W T. Zidansek 2 - 1 July 18, 2026

C. Gauff

L K. Muchova 2 - 1 July 9, 2026
W J. Pegula 1 - 2 July 7, 2026
W B. Bencic 1 - 2 July 5, 2026
W C. Liu 1 - 2 July 3, 2026
W S. Sierra 1 - 2 July 1, 2026

All June 17, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used