TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Keys vs K. Muchova (Berlin on 2026-06-17) — the market is efficient, with K. Muchova favoured at 1.82.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Keys | K. Muchova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
73.8% | 26.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
63.6% | 36.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
58.3% | 41.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.9% | 52.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Keys | hard | 1898 | 91–56 | 147 |
| K. Muchova | hard | 2060 | 106–43 | 149 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
M. Keys leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 18, 2026 | Berlin | grass | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 3, 2025 | Montreal | hard | M. Keys | 2 - 1 |
| Sept. 30, 2019 | Beijing | hard | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Anisimova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 1 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
All June 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used