TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Sabalenka vs E. Alexandrova (Berlin on 2026-06-17) — the market is efficient, with A. Sabalenka favoured at 1.10.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Sabalenka | E. Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.0% | 34.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
69.7% | 30.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
66.5% | 33.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
67.4% | 32.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
86.4% | 13.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sabalenka | hard | 2224 | 196–58 | 254 |
| E. Alexandrova | hard | 1760 | 103–77 | 180 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 28, 2026.
Level at 3–3 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 17, 2026 | Berlin | grass | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 11, 2025 | Doha | hard | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 31, 2024 | WTA US Open | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 1 |
| July 10, 2023 | WTA Wimbledon | grass | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| June 12, 2022 | Hertogenbosch | grass | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Kessler | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Kostovic | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 1 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | I. Jovic | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | L. Tararudee | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | P. Udvardy | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
All June 17, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus gives Sabalenka a 73.5% win probability, significantly lower than the market's 90.9% implied probability, generating a substantial 12.9% edge on Alexandrova. This divergence is qualitatively supported by the H2H record where Alexandrova leads 3-2, and Sabalenka's Grass Elo (1895) is markedly lower than her Hard court dominance, suggesting vulnerability on this surface. While Sabalenka is the likely winner, the 7.00 odds drastically undervalue Alexandrova's historical success against the favorite and her capability on grass.