TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in E. Mertens vs N. Bartunkova (Berlin on 2026-06-17) — the market is efficient, with E. Mertens favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | E. Mertens | N. Bartunkova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.6% | 47.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
67.0% | 33.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
41.4% | 58.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.2% | 35.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.9% | 28.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Mertens | hard | 1855 | 118–77 | 195 |
| N. Bartunkova | clay | 1676 | 72–40 | 112 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 21, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 17, 2026 | Berlin | grass | N. Bartunkova | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 24, 2026 | WTA Australian Open | hard | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Noskova | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Rybakina | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Siegemund | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | B. Andreescu | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | L. Tararudee | 1 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | Y. Yuan | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | B. Krejcikova | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | K. Siniakova | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All June 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used