TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Pegula vs K. Siniakova (Berlin on 2026-06-17) — the market is efficient, with J. Pegula favoured at 1.39.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | K. Siniakova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
51.9% | 48.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
56.7% | 43.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
41.7% | 58.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
60.6% | 39.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
66.4% | 33.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pegula | hard | 2077 | 192–73 | 265 |
| K. Siniakova | hard | 1822 | 101–77 | 178 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
J. Pegula leads 6–1 over 7 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 17, 2026 | Berlin | grass | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 10, 2025 | Wuhan | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| June 24, 2025 | Bad Homburg | grass | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| June 22, 2024 | WTA Berlin | grass | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 20, 2022 | Doha | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Eala | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | N. Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 0 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | June 17, 2026 |
| W | R. Masarova | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
All June 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used