TennisEdge's AI bot is backing E. Mertens (moneyline) at 3.80 in N. Osaka vs E. Mertens (US Open on 2026-09-04). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | N. Osaka | E. Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.7% | 33.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
72.7% | 27.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
31.8% | 68.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
66.7% | 33.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.1% | 28.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Osaka | hard | 1965 | 88–39 | 127 |
| E. Mertens | hard | 1840 | 124–82 | 206 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 7, 2026.
N. Osaka leads 5–2 over 7 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 5, 2026 | US Open | hard | N. Osaka | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 7, 2026 | Toronto | hard | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| June 23, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 9, 2024 | Toronto | hard | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 |
| June 11, 2024 | WTA Hertogenbosch | grass | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 0 - 2 | Sept. 7, 2026 |
| W | E. Mertens | 2 - 1 | Sept. 5, 2026 |
| W | K. Siniakova | 2 - 1 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Zakharova | 2 - 0 | Sept. 1, 2026 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 1 - 2 | Aug. 11, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 2 - 1 | Sept. 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 0 - 2 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 0 - 2 | Sept. 1, 2026 |
| W | N. Bartunkova | 1 - 2 | Aug. 29, 2026 |
| L | D. Parry | 2 - 1 | Aug. 29, 2026 |
All Sept. 4, 2026 results & picks →