TennisEdge's AI bot is backing E. Alexandrova +4.5 (game handicap) at 1.83 in M. Kostyuk vs E. Alexandrova (US Open on 2026-09-04). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Kostyuk | E. Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.1% | 25.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
62.8% | 37.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.8% | 53.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
74.1% | 25.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kostyuk | hard | 1933 | 126–75 | 201 |
| E. Alexandrova | hard | 1809 | 110–82 | 192 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 6, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 4, 2026 | US Open | hard | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 12, 2022 | Portoroz | hard | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 0 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | S. Stephens | 2 - 0 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Hunter | 2 - 0 | Aug. 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 2 - 0 | Aug. 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Birrell | 1 - 2 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | M. Kessler | 0 - 2 | Aug. 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Tauson | 1 - 2 | Aug. 27, 2026 |
| L | S. Bejlek | 2 - 1 | Aug. 18, 2026 |
All Sept. 4, 2026 results & picks →