TennisEdge's AI bot is backing E. Alexandrova +4.5 (game handicap) at 1.83 in M. Kostyuk vs E. Alexandrova (US Open on 2026-09-04). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Kostyuk | E. Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.1% | 25.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
62.8% | 37.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
46.8% | 53.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
74.1% | 25.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kostyuk | hard | 1865 | 127–81 | 208 |
| E. Alexandrova | hard | 1841 | 116–86 | 202 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 12, 2026.
E. Alexandrova leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 21, 2026 | Ningbo | hard | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 0 |
| Sept. 4, 2026 | US Open | hard | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 12, 2022 | Portoroz | hard | E. Alexandrova | 2 - 1 |
| L | C. Gauff | 0 - 2 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 0 - 2 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 0 | Oct. 21, 2026 |
| L | M. Sakkari | 2 - 1 | Oct. 13, 2026 |
| L | K. Rakhimova | 2 - 1 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Li | 0 - 2 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Fernandez | 2 - 1 | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Kostyuk | 1 - 0 | Oct. 21, 2026 |
| W | H. Guo | 0 - 2 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
All Sept. 4, 2026 results & picks →